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The I.P.C.C. Ignores Basic Chemistry and Astronomy

The I.P.C.C. Ignores Basic Chemistry and Astronomy

Strangely—little has been mentioned of the chemistry involving C02 and temperature:

C02 + H20 < > H2C03 < > H+ + HC03- < > +(Ca)=  CaC03+ H+


This equation is a synopsis of C02 / ocean water chemistry.  C02 has retrograde solubility- i.e.-more C02 is dissolved in water with a cooler temperature (4% more solubility per 1 degree C. fall in temp) therefore removing C02 from the atmosphere and forming bicarbonate ion and carbonate – and extending eventually to the formation of calcium carbonate rocks.  Heat shifts the equation to the left with gradual atmospheric C02 liberation with ocean warming.  Atmospheric C02 concentration is primarily determined by temperature rather than the other way around.  This is easily demonstrated in the laboratory and it has been shown to be the case in ice core samples on several continents that prehistoric atmospheric C02 concentration follows atmospheric temperature changes by several hundred years—not the reverse.  This C02 variation is best seen in long 50,000-100,000 year glacial (cold) and interglacial (warm) periods.  It is now seen in shorter cycles – years and decades – as discussed below.  The main sink of atmospheric C02 is HC03- and dissolved C02 in the oceans which is 61 times atm.C02.  The largest reservoir of C02 is CaC03 in carbonate rocks (limestone), dolomite, and calcites, etc. which is 141,000 times the amt of C02 in the atmosphere.  This equation has been shifting left and right during short, medium and long solar cycles (warm and cold periods) for more than a billion years.

Interestingly, C02 is a blessing.  Lab studies show 50% faster growth of all plant species  when grown in a 3X C02 environment (consider Cambrian and Jurassic below).

C02 comprises 380 ppm in atmosphere=.038% by volume.  95% of GHG in atmosphere is water vapor.  Only 3.6% of GHG is C02 and 97% of this is natural.  Only 3% of C02 in atm.is anthropogenic-therefore 3% X 3.6%=0.117% is human contribution of C02 to the greenhouse effect. Consider this with the knowledge that C02 levels were 20X higher in the Cambrian period (550 million yrs. ago) when there was an explosion of plant and animal life.  Even in the 200 million year ago Jurassic period C02 was 5X present levels.  C02 decreased ~ 50 million years ago due to changes in outgasing from ocean ridges, volcanoes, and increased carbon burial.  In the past 400,000 years C02 has varied between 180-380ppm.  During this time lower C02 levels have tracked 100,000 yr. cold glaciations and higher C02 levels have followed warm interglacial periods.  Interestingly,  these glacial cycles coincide with the 100,000 year earth/sun orbital eccentricity cycles.

Earth’s surface has probably cooled slightly the past 10 years.  It probably warmed slightly from 1975-1998.  It cooled from 1949-1975.  It warmed from 1750-1940 after spending~400 years in the Little Ice Age.  It cooled from the Medieval Warm period (900-1300 AD) to the Little Ice Age (1350-1800 AD).  It has continued it’s slight cooling trend from the Holocene Warm Maximum (8000 to 6000 years ago) to any subsequent or present date.  Any temperature prior to 11,000 years ago was cooler than present due to the 90,000 year Wurm Glaciation, and there were a dozen of these glaciations in the two million years before that.  There were at least 4 Snow Ball earths in the past 2 billion years.

Whether we compare ice ages, millennia, centuries  or our own experience with decades, years, months and days—our climate surface temperature varies – on longer time frames with the sun/earth obliquity, precession and eccentricity cycles and on shorter periods with sunspot/sun rotation cycles and water vapor cloud cover.  Other solar influences include cosmic ray fluxes and UV absorption induced local climate reversals.  Recent observations suggest even Mars has warmed over several decades.  Our Sun clearly controls our surface temperature.  Atmospheric C02 depends of this temperature variation—it does not cause it.

Atmospheric C02 seems to have increased this century.  Of course it has. The surface temperature has increased!  This has been the warmest century in hundreds of years. It’s no coincidence that the sunspot cycle has been maximal this past century.  It’s also no coincidence that we are finally coming out of the Little Ice Age (which had no sun spots).

Few investigators have stressed the chemical dynamics of C02 solubility and bicarbonate dissociation that temperature drives one way of the other.  Temp. drives C02 – not the reverse.  Are IPCC climatologists aware of this formula?  Is anyone aware of this science?  Is public policy ignoring this relationship? Where are news sources and science editors when we need them?

Robert G. Dillon, M.D.

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